Friday, September 2, 2011

Linking Weather Models, GIS and Inventory Systems For Disaster Operations

Salado, Texas.  Today’s meteorological forecast models and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) can play an enormous role in helping emergency managers inform the public of available sheltering and healthcare services in advance of natural disasters. These systems can also facilitate supply efforts during and immediately after disasters. GIS maps can highlight in real time, hospitals, medical centers and Mass Care shelters with various capacities and capabilities for persons evacuating their homes. The GIS mapping in conjunction with Inventory Management Systems (IMS) can also identify facilities requiring initial and resupply of food, water, medicines, medical supplies and specialty life support equipment. Television stations and other media outlets can use GIS to inform first responders and residents in projected affected areas of where general and specialized services are available.
Using advanced meteorological models and GIS, healthcare and other supply chain leaders can redeploy stock from distribution centers in unaffected areas of the region or Nation to distribution centers near the disaster area which will support healthcare and shelter operations. These systems can offer lifesaving information in advance of landfall of future hurricanes and tsunamis.  Integrating meteorological models, GIS and Supply Chains into NIMS will also help the National Disaster Medical System (NDMS) identify where evacuees are physically located and based on their medical requirements, which hospitals in unaffected areas have the appropriate services to receive evacuees.  
Concept of Operations
Hurricanes: Advanced meteorological models already offer the most accurate predictions in history, regarding where a hurricane will have the greatest likely impact and over time, these models are more and more accurate. Jurisdictional emergency managers have pre-designated Mass Care and general population shelter locations as well as listings of local hospitals, medical centers and other healthcare organizations. Integrating weather modeling, GIS and inventory management systems can enhance the NIMS by depicting the capabilities, capacities and needs (orders) of healthcare organizations, general population shelters and Mass Care shelters in real time throughout a disaster and through the recovery stage. As meteorological models’ cones of uncertainty are narrowed and more accurately predict landfall, healthcare distributors as part of the ESF-6 and ESF-8 support structures can redeploy pharmaceuticals, medical supplies and durable medical equipment (DME) directly into the distribution centers supporting the disaster location (s). GIS information can be incorporated into inventory management systems to provide real-time, facility-specific information on facilities with open orders and their location for use by transporters. Color coded facility depictions can also highlight the criticality of supply requirements by facility type.
Tsunamis: Based on the number of hours of notice and the affected area
people and hospital patients in the impact area can be evacuated to receiving location shelters, Mass Care Shelters and healthcare organizations away from the affected area (s). Time permitting, healthcare distribution centers in the impact area can rapidly transport their medical materiel to company distribution centers outside the impact area. Distribution centers away from the impact area can surge operations to meet the increases in demand for medical and non-medical materials, food, water and other commodities. GIS information will provide distributors with active shelters and healthcare organizations and GIS may be integrated into inventory management systems (IMS) to assist suppliers and transporters in delivering supplies to the ordering shelters and healthcare organizations.

Note: General Population shelter managers should adopt similar processes and procedures for providing fuel, waste treatment services, water, food, clothing, personal hygiene and other day to day living supplies to general shelter populations. It is imperative that emergency planners develop systems which can “Stand Alone” and sustain large numbers of people for weeks; not just days.

Earthquakes, Industrial accidents and terrorist attacks. There are currently no (or limited) advanced notification or prediction systems for these events. However, weather can certainly become a confounder in any disaster and may provide another level of complexity to response and recovery operations. By integrating modern weather forecasting, GIS and supply chain systems into the NIMS, we will be able to optimize our emergency management planning, response and recovery operations for virtually any future emergency or disaster.

Summary: Today’s highly accurate meterological modeling systems have provided vital advance warning to jurisdiction leaders for years. GIS mapping can provide graphic depictions on available services and urgency of needs at each facility. It is time to synchronize weather prediction models and GIS information with America’s various supply chains for disaster support operations. The technology is available, so hopefully, jurisdictions can employ these advanced systems in a manner which saves lives and reduces suffering in future disasters. 

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Last Call- The Healthcare Supply Chain Vulnerability

Salado, Texas. During the financial crisis of 2008, the federal government printed money to stabilize our economy. In a future large-scale disaster or catastrophic event, no amount of money will purchase critical medical supplies and pharmaceuticals that do not exist. When a sudden very large spike in demand for medical materials occurs, we will either have the lifesaving medicines and support therapies or we will not.

A recent survey from the American Hospital Association reveals very disturbing details on the number of drug shortages at hospitals all across America. Folks, these are the best of times and yet this is the reality. Imagine our plight in a large scale disaster when the demand for lifesaving medicines will be huge.  I applaud the AHA for this report and I hope most earnestly that American healthcare leaders take this wake up call. 
Any large-scale public health emergency, natural disaster or terrorist attack will cause a sudden and profound spike in demand for both pharmaceuticals and medical surgical products. A very lean supply chain is remarkably easy to deplete if the demand is both sudden and very large. This could result in massive curtailments in healthcare operations across America and could threaten America’s entire healthcare industry.
The relatively modest surges in medical product demand during the 2009-2010 H1N1 flu season put many if not most healthcare organizations on “Allocation.” Just imagine what would occur if we face a large-scale, material intensive disaster.
HHS and CDC have not used plain language on what categories and quantities of federal supplies would and would not be available to healthcare organizations during disasters. http://www.cdc.gov/phpr/stockpile.htm#sns7  
I’m sad to say that the language outlining the Strategic National Stockpile lends itself to a totally unwarranted sense that the federal government will back up hospitals, medical centers, surgical centers and outpatient clinics during disasters. This vague and carefully crafted language is unwise at best and may be catastrophic in the worst cases. The young, old and those with chronic illnesses will suffer the most. We should do the right thing and we should do it right now! The Federal Government should clearly state which categories of supplies, equipment and pharmaceuticals will and not be available to healthcare organizations and when and for how long healthcare organizations can count on Federal support.
The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) medical materiel depots have been effectively closed since 1992 and that safety net is gone.  
I am profoundly concerned about the plight of all Americans during disasters, but especially those whose lives depend most on medication and support therapies.  Many Americans can live through a persistent lack of medicines, but many lives depend on it.
Since 1999 I have advocated Federal planners purchase large quantities of critical pharmaceuticals and medical supplies and pay national distributors to manage the Federal Reserve Inventories and stock rotate the material in storage. During times of crisis, federal stocks could be quickly released and immediately flow seamlessly into the Health Care Industry’s supply chain.
This simple preparatory step can sustain medical operations, save lives and prevent untold human suffering.  A modest national investment in Federal Reserve Inventories in advance of a catastrophic event may also obviate the need to rebuild the Healthcare Industry requiring appalling sums of money and time many Americans simply won’t have.
It is very late morning in America and I hope healthcare leaders will answer this very sincere wake up call. There is no snooze button.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Let's Give Wounded Warriors Job Opportunities in Healthcare Disaster Readiness

The recent outbreaks of tornados and floods led me to think of how we could better respond to future disasters.  Giving returning Service Members employment opportunities in Healthcare Emergency Management would make excellent use of their skills and is the right thing to do.  Read my article

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Writing Measurable Target Capabilities

My most recent article on Disaster Readiness discusses how to write measurable Target Capabilities. I think as a result of the latest Presidential Policy Directive (PPD-8), we will see a Presidential mandate to measure Disaster Readiness in quantifiable terms.

As the term “Whole Community” approach to Disaster Readiness becomes more common in future DHS/FEMA discussions and guidance documents, I hope the Jurisdictional Emergency Manager will be recognized as the overall leader, facilitator and community mentor for Disaster Readiness. I believe that if “Everyone is Responsible, No one is Accountable.” The buck has to stop with the community expert in Emergency Management. That person is the jurisdiction’s Emergency Manager. Read the article at: http://tiny.cc/dn1eu

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Catastrophic Event Patient Care: An EMS and Disaster Healthcare Paradigm Shift

Battlefield casualty management experience has resulted in advanced and effective rescue, resuscitation, stabilization, definitive treatment and rehabilitation of soldiers ever since World War II. The use of the helicopter as an air ambulance greatly improved the survival rates of soldiers wounded in combat in Korea and Vietnam and in all conflicts since. Many trauma procedures develop in combat medicine have been applied with great success to our civilian trauma systems. With the ever-present threat of terrorist attacks using biological, chemical, radiological/nuclear and explosive agents or devices, the time may be right for jurisdictions and their civilian healthcare systems to implement a combat proven system for mass casualties called the 4-Echelon Mass Casualty Management System.

For more than 10 years, Public Health agencies at all levels of government have been ramping up capabilities for early detection and responses to biological warfare agents and disease outbreaks. HHS through the Hospital Preparedness (HPP) grant program has advocated a 6-Tiered approach to managing expanding disasters from local communities (Tier 1) all the way outward to a National (Tier 6) fully integrated response to catastrophic events. The overarching idea is to build a scaled response to disasters by forging strong relationships between the Emergency Management community, public health agencies and Private Sector healthcare organizations in order to effectively manage casualties resulting from any disaster event. The system should maximize the number of casualties stabilized during the “Golden Hour” and then rapidly transport stabilized patients to hospitals and medical centers away from the affected community for definitive care and long term rehabilitation.

What is the 4-Echelon Disaster Patient Management System? The 4-Echelon Disaster Patient Management System is a highly effective and efficient system of managing very large numbers of casualties throughout a disaster and until local healthcare organizations recover and can resume normal operations.

The 1st Echelon of care is provided by first responders and consists of immediate lifesaving procedures and the rapid transport of the living to a 2nd Echelon facility. All living casualties are transported to 2nd Echelon facilities with the dead left for the mortuary affairs team.

A 2nd Echelon facility may be a trauma center or an emergency department. The 2nd Echelon is essential in making the most of the patient’s “Golden Hour.” By providing immediate care and by dramatically increasing the casualty throughput to 3rd and 4th Echelons, the 2nd Echelon care providers prevent or reduce the patient gridlock associated with a disaster and thus, optimize the saving of lives. 2nd Echelon care is designed only to save lives and stabilize patients and not to provide definitive care. Typically at the 2nd Echelon, providers ventilate patients if necessary, control bleeding, infuse blood products and expanders and amputate limbs as required. Once stabilized, patients are quickly transported to the 3rd Echelon of care for definitive treatment.

The 3rd Echelon disaster healthcare facility is typically a hospital or medical center away from the immediate disaster location. In the early stages of a disaster, a hospital or medical center may provide both 2-E and 3-E care. It is likely that a hospital’s 3-E capacity will almost immediately be reached and the facility will revert to 2-E care only. 3rd Echelon facilities may be within a jurisdiction or may include hospitals in several jurisdictions or even national regions, depending on the number of casualties and the care requirements. Definitive care is provided at all 3rd Echelon facilities, but specialized care such as burn centers may also be provided in a 3rd Echelon facility. This includes a full complement of surgery specialties, diagnostics and follow-on care for about 7 days. Patients who cannot be discharged within a week are normally candidates for 4th Echelon care.

The 4th Echelon may include specialty centers or rehabilitation hospitals capable of providing long term ventilation care, psychiatric care, burn or wound care and rehabilitation or specialization in physical therapy or orthopedic care including providing prosthetic devices and associated therapies.

Depending on the location and scope of the disaster, a particular hospital may function as a 2nd, 3rd or a 4th Echelon facility. When close to the disaster location, a hospital may have to function only as a 2nd Echelon facility, transporting all stabilized patients to 3rd and 4th Echelon facilities further away from the disaster location. By so doing, the hospital serving as a 2nd Echelon hospital may be able to treat more patients in need of stabilization than it could as a multiple-Echelon facility. In another disaster scenario further away, this same hospital could be functioning as a 3rd or 4th Echelon facility, providing definitive and/or specialty care to stabilized patients.

What is the role of Healthcare Organizations as part of a 4-Echelon Disaster Patient Management System? Most medical centers and many hospitals operate as a de-facto full 4-Echelon self-contained system during normal everyday operations. During a disaster, Healthcare organizations will periodically self-declare their capabilities to the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) in terms of the Echelon of care they can provide in a fluid environment. Depending on the size and scope of a Mass Casualty event, a hospital may eliminate the 4th-Echelon immediately and declare itself as 2nd and 3rd Echelon capable to the medical representative in the Emergency Operations Center. At that point, the EMA would reach out to adjacent jurisdictions to activate their EOC (s) and to provide a list of healthcare organizations capable of providing 4th Echelon care. In any case, healthcare organizations must be able to efficiently communicate their capabilities with the jurisdiction’s EOC throughout the disaster.

How can 4-E work in a competitive Healthcare Marketplace?

A traditional model of disaster healthcare seems to dictate that healthcare organizations provide the full continuum of care to all patients presenting for care. Competition would seem to dictate that hospitals or medical centers expand (surge) their services until their individual capacity and capabilities are reached. Why then would hospitals want to self-declare themselves as a 2nd Echelon facility and request rapid transport of stabilized patients to healthcare organizations outside of their service area? The answer lies in continuity of operations. Hospitals in the affected area need to recover and resume normal healthcare services as soon as possible after a disaster. 2nd Echelon healthcare facilities performing thousands of life saving procedures over the course of a disaster, (if properly documented) may generate significantly more revenue than 3rd Echelon facilities away from the disaster location. Also, by serving as a 2nd Echelon facility and rapidly transferring patients to 3rd and 4th Echelon facilities outside the affected area, hospitals and medical centers in the affected area can conserve staffing and specialty care material resources and thus, can more rapidly recover after the disaster event.

This definitely requires a paradigm shift, but experience shows that after a disaster, healthcare providers need decompression time. If the staff is exhausted, who will provide healthcare services immediately following a disaster? Likewise, medical supplies are consumed at an enormous rate during a disaster. Equipment used during a disaster needs to be disinfected and inspected prior to being returned to normal service. If the support services personnel are exhausted, who is going to disinfect hospital areas and the equipment and how long will the hospital be closed after a disaster? Heart attacks and strokes will still occur, babies will be born and the population in general will need care immediately after a disaster.

Finally but importantly, disaster operations can and do strain healthcare financial resources to the breaking point. The last thing that any community needs after a disaster is a number of bankrupt hospitals or medical centers. Civilian healthcare organizations cannot issue continuing resolutions in order to make payroll or pay suppliers during and after a disaster. Federal and State payers as well as private insurance companies must develop and publish simplified health care claim procedures for use during declared emergencies. These simplified claim procedures will sustain healthcare organizations and their services during and after a disaster and can help ensure that healthcare services are available after the disaster. Perhaps, simplified financial procedures can be tied to services rendered at each Echelon of care.

Adopting the 4-Echelon Disaster Patient Management System. The first step is the adoption of the 4-Echelon Disaster Patient Management System by a state or territory EMA, EMS organizations and the Healthcare organizations within the jurisdiction. Once proven in a single state, the 4-Echelon System may be adopted throughout a federal region or multiple regions. In time, the 4-Echelon System can be adopted Nationwide. The 4-Echelon System will fit seamlessly into the National Disaster Medical System (NDMS), since had the Cold War turned hot, the NDMS healthcare facilities were the planned 4th Echelon of care for service members returning from either the European or Pacific theaters of operations. The 4-Echelon System is in effect today for returning injured service members. Thus, while jurisdictions and health systems struggle to develop an effective “Medical Surge” system, this may be the right time to integrate this efficient and effective patient management system into our civilian disaster healthcare system. ©2011 JVR Health Readiness Inc.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Disasters Only Happen To Others

(Jim Rush Salado, Texas) With the 8.9 Japan earthquake, America is once again thinking about Disaster Readiness, but I fear this is just a temporary phenomenon. If our past is any indicator, instead of using this tragedy as an opportunity to become truly prepared for disasters, we will once again relapse into a state of complacency. For decades, Japan has invested heavily in earthquake Readiness and has perhaps the world’s most stringent building codes in preparation for the earthquake that has occurred. I can’t help but wonder what an 8.9 earthquake would mean to Los Angeles, Portland or Seattle and to the folks who live in those cities.

Since 2004, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has advised state and local leaders to plan for very large disaster scenarios. Some of the DHS’ “Planning Scenarios” http://tiny.cc/czgr4 include a 10 Kiloton nuclear attack, a major earthquake, and a killer influenza Pandemic. The #1 DHS Planning scenario is a nuclear attack with a 10 Kiloton bomb in large, high risk American city or large metropolitan areas. We can only imagine the loss of life and suffering that would be associated with a major terrorist attack with our current dismal level of Readiness. Even in the face of Federal planning advice, DHS has done little to build the capabilities that would be needed to effectively manage an attack of this size and scope.

For years now, I have been advocating for a calm, resolute culture of Disaster Readiness. Unfortunately, I have been seeing what I refer to as the “PowerGlide” of Public sentiment. For those of you too young to remember, many Chevrolet automobiles in the 1960's had a “PowerGlide” transmission - low gear and high gear...that's all there was. Since the terrorist attacks of 9-11, we as a society have had only two collective mental gears....complacency and hysteria.

Prior to 9-11 we were in the complacent gear, and afterward, when we were scared to death we would be attacked again, we transitioned immediately into the hysteria gear. Congress acted as they are wont to do, by enacting laws sending billions of dollars to Federal agencies with urgent instructions to “Get the Money Out Now.” Congress should have first commissioned a group of Operational Readiness experts to outline a common sense National Disaster Readiness Plan which would result in increases in America’s capacities and capabilities to manage the major disaster scenarios promulgated by DHS. At that point, Congress could have appropriated funds to enable actions called for in the National Response Framework. Instead, Congress enacted laws to fund various huge grant programs without the coordination and integration required of any competent National disaster readiness program. When Federal Programs all march in different directions based on the laws enacted by Congress, we have a guarantee of failure. My last blog entry “Unprepared after Tens of Billions of Federal Grant Funding” further explains how we built a fragmented, politically correct National Readiness Program.

Although we all knew we are going to be attacked again, soon after 9-11 we reverted to our complacent gear. As such, we have done little to significantly improve our overall state of Readiness to manage another 3,000 casualty event, let alone a 100,000-300,000 casualty event. As a Nation, we just don't want to think about unpleasant things and thus, there is little public support for Disaster Readiness. Sadly, many Emergency Managers, the folks whose job it is to plan for major disasters, also refuse to think about or plan for large scale natural disasters, industrial accidents or terrorist attacks.

In 2005, we all saw thousands of people suffering and dying during and immediately following hurricane Katrina. Folks with disabilities were slumped down dead in wheelchairs outside storefronts, nurses crying on hospital rooftops while manually ventilating patients while they waited for a medical evacuation helicopter. We saw the dead floating down streets in New Orleans-an American city, with corpses in the water. If we had mobile hospitals and public health units, we could have deployed them to the high ground near New Orleans to treat those requiring medical care and/or immunizations and other Public Health services. Since we didn’t invest in Mobile health and medical units, we had to fly thousands of hurricane survivors to points around America. One facility located at the decommissioned Kelly Air Force Base in San Antonio received large numbers of Special Needs patients, many without any of critically important medicines like Insulin. Volunteer nurses had no medical supplies on hand and no federal system from which to order. Instead, they resorted to calling pharmaceutical companies to request donations of insulin, lancets and glucometers to care for the evacuees who had been without insulin for days. Imagine that…all those billions of Federal Grant Program dollars, but no medicine for chronic illness care!

Then in 2008, we saw an entire community’s healthcare infrastructure destroyed in Galveston, Texas as a result of hurricane Ike. Once again, instead of deploying cost effective Healthcare and Public Health facilities to Galveston after the hurricane, we embarked on a very costly process of using air evacuation helicopters to airlift patients in Galveston to Houston hospitals for medical care. While this was ongoing, many of the highly skilled physicians, surgeons, nurses, physical and respiratory therapists and other highly skilled medical professionals left Galveston to work elsewhere. If we had deployed mobile hospitals and specialty care facilities to Galveston, many if not all the medical professionals could have continued working in Galveston and serving the Community. Instead, the result was an absence of hospital care for almost a year and untold costs to the taxpayers to airlift folks to Houston for medical care. Even though it will take Galveston years to recover, we pulled the complacency blanket over our heads and went back to sleep.

We have been told by the CDC for years now that it was a matter of "When" and not "If" we would have a killer Pandemic. During the 2009-2010 H1N1 flu season, we experienced far fewer deaths than we experienced in a normal flu season and yet we were all about to dust off our living wills. There were enduring backorders for all manner of respiratory care supplies and other medical supplies. In fact, medical distributors resulted to “allotting” (a nice word for rationing) medical material supply orders from hospitals all across America. As soon as the immediate hysteria subsided, we once again shifted back into our complacency gear, instead of ramping up our Public Health and Healthcare organizations’ ability to manage and logistically support medical care during a future killer pandemic. The opportunity was lost for Federal Response agencies like the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to begin building Federal Reserve Inventories (FRI) of medical supplies, equipment, mobile hospitals and public health infrastructure.

I hope we can develop a third gear...an overdrive if you will, that will take us into the future. We need to reinvigorate the National Disaster Medical System (NDMS), including a dedicated medical supply and equipment program to sustain the NDMS during large scale disasters. Let’s develop REAL plans to take care of REAL casualties. Let’s do the hard work to develop supply and equipment lists of all classes of materials, including deployable mobile disaster hospitals, needed to provide professional medical care and competent sheltering for people with disabilities and special medical needs. Let’s ask HHS or DHS to purchase and manage these critical healthcare and public health assets as Federal Reserve Inventories.

Let’s look at the 15 Federal Planning Scenarios and plan for the scenarios which will most likely occur for our high risk jurisdictions. Let’s build mobile disaster hospitals and public health departments which are properly supplied, equipped and sustained during long duration disasters.

Let’s really enhance our Medical Reserve Corps by developing a program similar to our Armed Forces Reserve components; offering paid “Reserve” opportunities to retired Medical Professionals and let’s pay them during summer sessions to update their competencies and integrate with active healthcare and public health professionals. Let’s link-up healthcare and public health with our communities’ Emergency Management Agencies and develop a real disaster-ready community response. Let’s ask the Federal Government to build Federal Reserve Inventories of food, water, medical supplies, equipment and pharmaceuticals to name just a few (FRIs). After all, we already have the model in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Disaster Readiness is never inexpensive, but it is always cost effective. We need to understand that we will either invest in a National Disaster Response System now, or pay much more in future disasters, not just in dollars, but in human life.

If we can muster the will, the good stewardship, and the funding to increase our Readiness posture, we can take the first few steps that lead us to "Full Readiness." We can begin saving hundreds of thousands of lives during the next man-made or natural disaster.

Lets all insert that extra gear into our two speed culture. Let's see how it feels to know that we did all that could have been done in preparing our Country for the really big next one. That gear is known as the Readiness gear. Start shifting!

Monday, March 7, 2011

Unprepared After Tens of Billions of Federal Grant Funding

We are “Unprepared” for any large-scale disaster, despite tens of Billions of dollars spent by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and other Federal agencies that have been tasked with preparing America for major disasters. DHS itself has advised states and local Governments to prepare for 15 Federal Planning Scenarios. http://tiny.cc/cekws

While tens of Billions have been expended,the manner in which Congress has mandated that the disaster preparedness dollars be distributed, have diluted the value of this huge investment. Instead of a funding stream that mirrors the capabilities needed by cities, states and the federal response agencies, the money was pushed down to states for future distribution to cities. Also, instead of financing Readiness on the basis of risk, the money went to states and cities based on population.

By diluting Readiness grant dollars to states and a few large urban centers, Congress and Federal Agencies can assert that “We have spent Billions of dollars in Preparedness and Readiness for future disasters. The fact is states and local governments will undoubtedly require a robust Federal response to large-scale disaster,but since the money is spent, there are very few Federal assets that can be usefully deployed to future disaster areas. Below are just a few illustrations of just how “Unprepared” we truly are.

1.If there is a nuclear detonation of a 10Kiloton nuclear device in a major US City (DHS Planning Scenario #1.): There will be no large scale evacuation of the living away from high-radiological zones to safe areas. Result: People who could easily survive if given antidote and quickly removed from high levels of radiation will absorb ever larger levels of radiation until hundreds of thousands if not millions of Americans will die where they lie from acute radiation sickness.
Solution: FEMA must develop mass evacuation and resettlement plans and Health and Human Services must purchase and manage mobile disaster hospitals and specialty treatment centers.

2. If we have a widespread well coordinated biological attack on our food supply (DHS scenario #13) America has no Strategic Food Inventory to provide food to Americans while scientists and food inspectors can ascertain which portions of our food supply is safe to eat. We have a strategic petroleum reserve to bridge a disruption of oil from major oil producers, but if an attack by well trained terror cells infiltrates major food processing centers, Americans will be no longer be confident of what we eat.
Solution: USDA must purchase a 30 day supply of meals ready to eat or similar long-shelf life food products AND develop food purchase programs with our allies to keep Americans fed until the American food supply is certified as safe.

3. If we have a worldwide killer Pandemic (DHS planning scenario #3):The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) will have no mobile hospitals and no meaningful medical supplies and equipment inventories to bolster our already overloaded and heavily stressed healthcare system.

In the 1960s the Federal Government had 2,000 packaged disaster hospitals to bolster the private healthcare system during large scale disasters and catastrophes. Each hospital had 200 beds, three operating rooms and an X-Ray machine. Each hospital also had a high-output power generator. In addition each hospital had enough equipment and supplies to function without resupply for 30 days. By day 30, sustainment supplies would come from Defense Supply Agency depots-those closed in 1992 as a part of the Peace Dividend of the Clinton Administration. Today the Federal government has some mobile beds and cot and blanket sets called Federal Medical Stations which contain no meaningful inventories except first aid supplies.
Solution: Build and manage mobile disaster hospitals and build inventories of lifesaving supplies and equipment which can be stored in secure facilities and rapidly deployed to the disaster location.

4. If we experience a well coordinated series of terrorist suicide attacks on subways, train stations etc in DC, New York, Philadelphia and other large cities’ transportation systems Federal planning Scenario #12 (I have no idea why this scenario is #12): Healthcare Systems, Hospitals and Medical Centers will collapse under the pressure of enormous spikes in demand for trauma care, wound and burn care, blood and tissue supplies, orthopedic surgery and all other specialty care supplies and equipment.
Solution: The solution outlined in 3 above will also fulfill this requirement.

These are just a few Federal Planning Scenarios that the Department of Homeland Security has forecasted since 2004, yet as a Nation, we are almost as unprepared now as we were on 9-11. Worse, we have not learned lessons from hurricane Katrina and hurricane Ike in managing the healthcare needs of large numbers of persons, especially those with disabilities and chronic illnesses. When the next large-scale disaster occurs, we will have tons of receipts, but little ability to save lives and communities.

Monday, February 28, 2011

Can Electric Cars Cause Disasters?

Could the electric car be the straw that breaks the Power Grid’s Back? Here’s the scenario: The Year is 2015 and America has reached the goal of 1 Million electric cars. Many of those cars are in Florida and throughout the Gulf Coast states. A category 4 hurricane has set its sights on Florida. A voluntary evacuation in the Miami area has been issued and it appears the evacuation will become mandatory within 24 hours. So what do people do before evacuating? They stock up on essentials, do a few loads of wash, gas up their vehicles and now, they plug in their electric cars to make sure they have a full charge to max out their evacuation distance. All of this demand on the power grid causes a massive blackout, stopping gas station pumps, shutting off washing machines and cutting off power to those costly Electric Car batteries. It also halts evacuations of hospitals and nursing homes; all causing the man-made disaster just ahead of the hurricane’s natural disaster. Thus, we have the mega-disaster of 2015 which will serve as yet another learning opportunity for Emergency Managers and the folks at DHS charged with our Critical Infrastructure Protection. A post disaster congressional committee will find that America still suffers from a lack of imagination and we would have averted the Mega-Disaster if we had developed a comprehensive, strategic energy policy during the Eisenhower Administration.

America has known for 50 years that our power grid is over stressed and that oil from the Middle East was a risky proposition. Blackouts after blackouts have remained lessons Not Learned, since learning is hard and takes considerable effort and determination. The Oil Crisis of the 1970’s didn’t wake us up, since by the 1990’s we were indulging ourselves with HUMMERS and Oversized, over powered SUVs, while doing little to build American oil producing capacity. The fact that we were becoming ever more dependent on Middle Eastern oil didn’t scare us into exploring for much more oil at home-even though we know it’s there. Thus, we careen into the future with a more vulnerable power generating infrastructure than ever before in our history, at precisely the time when it appears our oil supply may well become a fugitive of the rebellions in the Middle East. With all of this going on, one would think we would recognize and act on our vulnerabilities right away. But it seems we are not vulnerable enough for us to awake from our energy coma.

Since most of our electricity is generated by coal burning, our Environmental Protection Agency has set its sights on American coal in order to clean the air and take a vital leg out from under our energy stool. Nuclear power has scared us to death since the infamous Three Mile Island accident, the “Not in my back yard” (NIMBY) folks have made it easier to transplant a face than it is to get a license for a nuclear power generating facility. America remains nuclear-phobic even while the French acquire 80% of their electricity from nuclear power. Remember, the French built the Maginot Line to keep the Germans out after World War I. While these folks are not normally seen as astute strategic planners, they beat us on this front and got it right on 21st Century Energy policy.

If energy from coal and nuclear sources are bad, oil is Satan. In our current state of denial, we are committed to solar power, oil producing algae and windmills to generate all the power that America needs for 21st Century prosperity. As we speed down those 50’s generation railroad tracks on our high speed trains toward an inevitable energy crash, it is important that we keep our electric cars plugged into those electric sockets-at least until the lights go out.

Friday, February 25, 2011

Getting Supplies and Equipment to Disaster Areas

Is anyone working with DHS in building a fully integrated Information Management System capable of merging “Situational Awareness” with a module which allows responders at all jurisdiction to order medical supplies, equipment, facilities, special needs products etc? I see many “communications’ systems which allows leaders to become aware of what is occurring, but none that allow Incident Commanders to place on-line orders for goods and services. I would be very interested in working with DHS contractors to provide an on-line resource ordering system. This system would also provide immediate inventory availability status for FEMA inventories, Government-owned Vendor Managed Inventories and Private Sector suppliers’ inventory.

I think with most of the IC systems, leaders at all levels of Government have the information available to be able to deploy SAR teams, firefighters, first responders etc., but I would be delighted to include the medical and non-medical materials systems and service contractors, mobile hospital suppliers and commodities like medicinal gasses, pain medicines and a host of special needs products. Knowing what is needed and getting those products and services to mass care centers, hospitals, nursing homes, etc. is quite a different matter.

Sunday, February 6, 2011

How to: Perform a Comprehensive Healthcare and Public Health Gap Analysis

I thought I’d share an article I wrote some time ago on how healthcare organizations and public health departments can perform a quality “gap analysis” to identify unmet requirements and then to work on narrowing the gap between what is required versus what is on hand to build a robust and resilient disaster response. Also, since The Joint Commission (TJC) has significantly broadened and emphasized healthcare Emergency Management standards, this article may be timely for those preparing for TJC surveys.

Everywhere we look these days, there seems to be guidance suggesting that healthcare organizations should perform a complete “Gap Analysis” as part of their Emergency Management Program (EMP). What seems to be lacking, is a recommended process to perform the “Healthcare Gap Analysis.” This process is also relevant to Public Health Departments. The jurisdiction’s Emergency Manager’s participation and leadership in Gap Analysis is vital to this process.

There are four major components to a thorough Gap Analysis: (1) Identification of planning scenarios along with the number of anticipated casualties for each planning scenario; (2) Requirements development; (3) A listing of current resources (both organizational and Prime Vendor/suppliers’) surge support; and (4) Forwarding to the next higher support agency, the difference (the gap) between current resources and surge capabilities and the total requirements needed for each planning scenario. The following is an attempt to clarify the various components of a complete Gap Analysis process.

1. The Planning Scenarios and the estimated number of casualties (live patients). Which types of disasters or public health emergencies are likely to befall a jurisdiction and how many casualties (by category) will likely be generated by each likely scenario? To get to these data, healthcare planners must consult with the jurisdiction’s emergency management agency. The jurisdiction’s Director of the Emergency Management Agency (EMA) performs Hazard Vulnerability Assessments (HVA) for the entire jurisdiction. Based on these HVAs, healthcare planners can obtain a number of planning scenarios which the jurisdiction could reasonably face. While healthcare and public health planners may consider other scenarios (like SARS or a Pandemic), for this discussion we will base the Gap Analysis on the top 3-5 planning scenarios provided by the EMA. We all know there are too many “turf issues” in Disaster Readiness today. This fact is all the more justification for taking the lead in talking with jurisdictional EMA chiefs in order to close the profound Disaster Readiness Gap we face today.

For each planning scenario, healthcare planners must obtain estimates of the number of casualties which will likely be generated. The EMA can often estimate the numbers of casualties (patients) and fatalities (dead) from past national and international disaster events. The EMA Chief can also help with the categories of injuries (such as burns, blunt force trauma and blast), based on past disasters such as the London bombings or the Tokyo subway Saran attack. The local or state Public Health Officer is the source for estimating the numbers of infected patients generated by events such as biological warfare agent attacks, SARS outbreaks or a Pandemic Influenza. HHS and Public Health sources such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may also provide estimated numbers of infected persons based on a jurisdiction’s population and may also offer advice as to the likely percentages of patients who will require hospitalization. The HHS’ Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) has a variety of very helpful tools and documents to estimate casualties (by category) from a number of disaster events.

2. Requirements Development. Another way of phrasing this component is: “what are the “total resources” needed to treat the numbers and categories of patients injured or infected as a result of each of the top 3-5 planning scenarios?” NOTE: Planners should coordinate with the jurisdiction’s Mortuary Affairs/ Grave Registry Director for the management of mass fatalities) The requirements development component of Gap Analysis is the process whereby healthcare and public health organizational planners identify every resource that will be required to effectively treat the estimated numbers and categories of patients resulting from scenarios identified in the community HVA. Hospital requirements include: beds, staff, medical supplies and equipment (such as ventilators, specialty beds and surgical equipment), transportation, food, water, medicinal gasses, generators/emergency power capacity, fuel, medical waste treatment equipment or removal service, and any other resource required to keep the hospital operational throughout a disaster and capable of treating the numbers of estimated casualties for each of the top 3 planning scenarios. During this phase of Gap Analysis, requirements or “needs” of the organization must not be influenced by what resources the hospital has on hand or can readily purchase from its suppliers. The reason why the requirements development component must be separated from available resources will be discussed in items #3 and #4, below. While the requirements development portion of a Gap Analysis is not a difficult process, it is tedious and time consuming. Perhaps that is why the requirements process is often the most poorly defined component of the Gap Analysis and therefore the healthcare Emergency Operations Plan (EOP). Without a complete set of requirements, planners cannot accurately depict the actual Resource Gap for forwarding an actual list of unmet requirements up the support chain as required by the National Response Framework.

3. Current Resources and Capabilities. This component of the Gap Analysis process depicts the entirety of the resources the healthcare organization and its suppliers have at their disposal to treat the number and categories of patients during the likely disaster scenarios. Healthcare and Public Health leaders need to work with their suppliers as a major component of Gap Analysis. Stockpiling at the hospital or public health department level (beyond a start-up inventory) is a bad idea and counterproductive. Stockpiling skews the week to week usage histories because ordering trends often reflect stockpile replenishment, rather than actual usage. Thus, suppliers’ demand forecast models can’t actually forecast normal requirements for total supply chain planning. A better Disaster Readiness strategy is to share the healthcare or public health departments’ total “Requirements List” with suppliers. The suppliers can then develop an Emergency Stock Redeployment Plan” whereby, suppliers can rapidly redeploy medical materials throughout their distribution center network during surges in product demand at specific areas of the Country. The suppliers’ redeployment plan should be exercised (with a small but representative quantity of materials) during community-wide exercises. Thus, The Joint Commission and other accreditation bodies can see that methods and processes are in place and operationally capable of meeting Emergency Management Standards. Even with comprehensive advance planning with suppliers, there will be resource shortfalls. This is why the National Response Framework (NRF) assigns Emergency Support Function (ESF) missions to Federal Response Agencies.

Many healthcare planners feel that they must somehow obtain the additional resources needed to manage a given scenario. The reality is that the National Response Framework (NRF) anticipated that requirements will far exceed local and even state and territory resources. The Emergency Support Function (ESF) organization at the Federal level responsible for providing Public Health and Medical Services sustainment support is the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) as the ESF-8 agency. In the NRF, HHS is tasked to provide the difference between city and state and territory available resources and capabilities and the total requirements and capabilities needed to medically manage large scale events…in other words ESF-8 is tasked to fill in the Gap. It is therefore imperative that local and state/territorial plans accurately depict the Gap which exists between the organization’s on-hand and supplier’s available assets and Total Requirements. Only then can HHS (and other Emergency Support Functions) properly plan, program and budget for closing the “Gaps” which exist in jurisdictions across America.

4. Forwarding the Requirements Gap. The “resource and capability gaps” for each planning scenario is the difference between available resources (including start-up inventories as well as suppliers’ redeployment plans) and capabilities, versus the total requirements. The National Response Framework requires that local healthcare organizations pass on requirements exceeding available resources to the local Emergency Management Agency (EMA). The requirements which cannot be met at the local jurisdictional level must then be forwarded to the state/territory or tribe EMA. Finally, unmet state/territory/tribe unmet requirements for resources and capabilities will be forwarded up the chain to the Federal agency responsible for providing the individual Emergency Support Functions (ESF). It bears repeating that backup support for Public Health and Medical Services, the Federal support function is ESF-8, and is provided by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). It is important for healthcare and public health planners and jurisdictional elected officials to cite the ESF-8 mission tasking when forwarding their “Unmet Requirements” up the support chain to HHS’, Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) for “Enterprise-Wide” accomplishment of their ESF-8 Mission Tasking.

With well-defined Public Health and Healthcare Gap Analyses from jurisdictions across America, HHS can then analyze, plan, program, budget, procure, manage, pre-position and rapidly deploy additional resources needed to sustain and fortify America’s Public Health agencies and the Private Healthcare Industry during future emergencies and disasters requiring Federal ESF support.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Healthcare Material Managers and Healthcare Reform

Many Materials Managers are already recognized by their healthcare organizations as true subject matter experts in virtually every support area of the healthcare organization. I have to say that the future for Materials Managers is extremely bright. I do hope the title will change to Healthcare Logistics Manager to reflect the actual function more realistically.

The Materials Manager will be a critical leader as we move toward healthcare reform, no matter which form healthcare reform takes. I think the Air Force experience with Healthcare Logisticians will be replicated in the Private Sector sooner rather than later. Materials Managers will provide the expertise needed to measure all healthcare costs and serve as the leader in implementing major cost containment efforts. Many healthcare organizations may not survive in the future, but those organizations with the desire to survive reimbursement reductions and continuing service to their Communities, the Materials Manager's experience will be invaluable.

The Air Force started moving Healthcare Logisticians into Commander (CEO) positions in the 1970s. The Air Force Surgeon General’s Office was amazed at how well we did as CEOs. We had an inside joke that we were naturals for the job. We never had the staffing levels we were authorized; we dealt with Defense Department medical depots as our Prime Vendor and dealt with 30-45 days order-ship dates. We also had to work with the Base Finance Office, Procurement Directorate, Information Systems Office and the Non-Medical Supply Officer (Base Supply) to get the supplies, equipment and services for our hospital or medical center. The feeling was if we could jump all those hurdles and accomplish “additional duties” such as Director, Environmental Services, Linen & Laundry, Central Supply, Plant Operations, Biomedical Equipment Management and serve as the United Way project officer, how hard could the CEO job really be?

I know that the future for the Materials Management career field is very bright indeed. It’s only a matter of time until Corporate Offices recognize what most of us are already doing and move us into the C-Suite. After all, the Air Force did that over 35 years ago.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Healthcare Executives-Take a systems approach to Healthcare Disaster Readiness

I attached a briefing that I think will help healthcare leaders take a “Systems Approach” to preparing healthcare organizations for future disasters and Public Health Emergencies.


https://docs.google.com/present/view?id=dg3kckdd_29c2vmh8fj

Monster Snow and Ice storm February 1st 2011

The monster snow storm is likely to cause loss of life and widespread suffering.  I have been advocating for years a Federal Government (likely FEMA) to air public service announcements (PSA) on citizen Disaster Readiness. I hear a lot of comments that the Folks would panic and in essence the Folks can’t handle the truth. Government officials may point to the “We advise people to stock up on plastic wrap and masking tape” fiasco after 9-11. While there will always be a few people who take things to extremes, in that case the message was very poorly crafted.

I believe is FEMA had a number of geographically pertinent PSAs on likely scenarios and specific actions citizens should take; we would be much better served. I think there are too many people in power who have a serious level of distain for the average American’s ability to understand risk communication and take appropriate action. I think Federal officials should use a good “Risk Communications Specialist” to write the copy which could be used to educate the Public on appropriate actions to take in advance of various disasters, attacks or Public Health Emergencies. It’s too late for the current snow and ice storm, but not too late for future events.